Unit Price Backtest — historical bids vs v2 calculator

← Pricing table · Calculator
Trade rows compared
65
across 6 projects
Within ±10% delta
38 / 65
9 more within ±20%
Mean variance
9%
positive = v2 under-predicts

Δ & % var are actual − predicted. Positive means v2 calculator under-predicted vs the historical bid (likely missing scope on our end). Negative means v2 over-predicts vs historical (could indicate the historical bid had narrower scope or rates have risen). Per-project scope assumptions are best-guess from the Plumbing / Electrical Bid Analysis tabs — refine and re-deploy as the inputs get verified.

Manning (M1)

2017 Manning Avenue, West LA 90025
Scope: slab_under_4 · Plumbing tab shows 70' sewer trench, optional saw-cut + slab repair (likely scoped out — calc excludes by default).
TradeSubActual bidv2 predictedΔ% var
Plumbing A Plus Construction $19,000 $8,000 +$11,000138%
Roofing Alejandro Roofing $4,200 $5,700 $-1,500-26%
Tile Francisco Calderon $2,690 $0 +$2,690
Decking Francisco Calderon $3,350 $3,400 $-50-1%
Drywall Juan Mercado $8,000 $7,500 +$5007%
HVAC Last Call HVAC $7,800 $7,800 +$00%
Framing Leon Framing $23,650 $21,371 +$2,27911%
Foundation Leon Framing $24,800 $19,383 +$5,41728%
Stucco Luis Zavaleta $7,800 $7,700 +$1001%
Insulation Marcos Quezada $3,240 $2,810 +$43015%
Finish Marcos Quezada $12,295 $13,450 $-1,155-9%
Electrical MHR Electric $12,400 $11,410 +$9909%
Project total $129,225 $108,524 +$20,70119%

⚠ 2 TBD scope(s) not in predicted total: Plumbing/Pick a water heater location (indoor or outdoor) — adds heat; Tile/Pick whether the kitchen has subway tile (yes / no)

Gundry (M1)

4381 Gundry Ave, Long Beach 90807
Scope: slab_under_4 · Trench lengths not specified in Plumbing tab. Calc uses 0 — likely understates plumbing.
TradeSubActual bidv2 predictedΔ% var
Plumbing A Plus Construction $16,000 $8,000 +$8,000100%
Roofing Alejandro Roofing $4,200 $5,700 $-1,500-26%
Tile Francisco Calderon $3,190 $0 +$3,190
Decking Francisco Calderon $3,350 $3,400 $-50-1%
Drywall Juan Mercado $7,500 $7,500 +$00%
HVAC Last Call HVAC $7,800 $7,800 +$00%
Framing Leon Framing $21,150 $21,371 $-221-1%
Foundation Leon Framing $24,000 $19,383 +$4,61724%
Stucco Luis Zavaleta $7,100 $7,700 $-600-8%
Insulation Marcos Quezada $3,240 $2,810 +$43015%
Finish Marcos Quezada $12,200 $13,450 $-1,250-9%
Electrical MHR Electric $10,800 $11,410 $-610-5%
Project total $120,530 $108,524 +$12,00611%

⚠ 2 TBD scope(s) not in predicted total: Plumbing/Pick a water heater location (indoor or outdoor) — adds heat; Tile/Pick whether the kitchen has subway tile (yes / no)

Edgemont (M1)

842 N Edgemont St, LA 90029
Scope: slab_under_4 · Plumbing bid shows 7 fixtures including 2 showers — suggests >1 bath despite M1 1B/1B label. Discrepancy flagged.
TradeSubActual bidv2 predictedΔ% var
Plumbing A Plus Construction $18,650 $13,090 +$5,56042%
Roofing Alejandro Roofing $4,200 $5,700 $-1,500-26%
Tile Francisco Calderon $3,190 $0 +$3,190
Decking Francisco Calderon $3,350 $3,400 $-50-1%
Drywall Juan Mercado $7,500 $7,500 +$00%
HVAC Last Call HVAC $7,800 $7,800 +$00%
Framing Leon Framing $19,150 $21,371 $-2,221-10%
Foundation Leon Framing $23,300 $19,383 +$3,91720%
Stucco Luis Zavaleta $7,400 $7,700 $-300-4%
Insulation Marcos Quezada $3,240 $2,810 +$43015%
Finish Marcos Quezada $12,600 $13,450 $-850-6%
Electrical MHR Electric $11,000 $11,410 $-410-4%
Project total $121,380 $113,614 +$7,7667%

⚠ 2 TBD scope(s) not in predicted total: Plumbing/Pick a water heater location (indoor or outdoor) — adds heat; Tile/Pick whether the kitchen has subway tile (yes / no)

Alvarado (M1)

1827 N Alvarado St, LA 90026
Scope: raised_over_22 · Raised foundation (>22" grade). Used siding instead of stucco ($6,000 historical). Plumbing has tub install, ice maker, spigot.
TradeSubActual bidv2 predictedΔ% var
Plumbing A Plus Construction $20,650 $9,300 +$11,350122%
Roofing Alejandro Roofing $4,500 $5,700 $-1,200-21%
Tile Francisco Calderon $3,190 $0 +$3,190
Decking Francisco Calderon $3,072 $3,400 $-328-10%
Drywall Juan Mercado $7,500 $7,500 +$00%
HVAC Last Call HVAC $7,800 $7,800 +$00%
Framing Leon Framing $25,700 $24,353 +$1,3476%
Foundation Leon Framing $26,800 $19,383 +$7,41738%
Stucco Luis Zavaleta $6,000 $0 +$6,000
Insulation Marcos Quezada $3,600 $3,120 +$48015%
Finish Marcos Quezada $13,100 $13,450 $-350-3%
Electrical MHR Electric $15,144 $11,410 +$3,73433%
Project total $137,056 $105,416 +$31,64030%

⚠ 3 TBD scope(s) not in predicted total: Plumbing/Pick a water heater location (indoor or outdoor) — adds heat; Tile/Pick whether the kitchen has subway tile (yes / no); Stucco/Siding selected — no published rates yet (Luis Zavaleta has

Milton (M1)

4137 Milton Ave, Culver City 90232
Scope: slab_under_4 · 70' sewer relocation, 10' tie-in, 110' water trench. $400 camera scope billed separately.
TradeSubActual bidv2 predictedΔ% var
Plumbing A Plus Construction $16,850 $12,000 +$4,85040%
Roofing Alejandro Roofing $4,500 $5,700 $-1,200-21%
Tile Francisco Calderon $3,190 $0 +$3,190
Decking Francisco Calderon $3,350 $3,400 $-50-1%
Drywall Juan Mercado $8,000 $7,500 +$5007%
HVAC Last Call HVAC $7,800 $7,800 +$00%
Framing Leon Framing $20,050 $21,371 $-1,321-6%
Foundation Leon Framing $19,900 $19,383 +$5173%
Stucco Luis Zavaleta $7,700 $7,700 +$00%
Insulation Marcos Quezada $3,240 $2,810 +$43015%
Finish Marcos Quezada $12,200 $13,450 $-1,250-9%
Electrical MHR Electric $14,895 $11,410 +$3,48531%
Project total $121,675 $112,524 +$9,1518%

⚠ 2 TBD scope(s) not in predicted total: Plumbing/Pick a water heater location (indoor or outdoor) — adds heat; Tile/Pick whether the kitchen has subway tile (yes / no)

Vanalden (M2)

9555 Vanalden Ave, Northridge 91324
Scope: slab_under_4 · M2 model. Electrical $22,600 included 180' trench, #1 AWG, 2 garage circuits.
TradeSubActual bidv2 predictedΔ% var
Plumbing A Plus Construction $12,900 $8,300 +$4,60055%
Roofing Alejandro Roofing $6,500 $7,700 $-1,200-16%
Tile Francisco Calderon $3,190 $0 +$3,190
Decking Francisco Calderon $3,350 $3,400 $-50-1%
Drywall Juan Mercado $10,500 $10,500 +$00%
HVAC Last Call HVAC $9,425 $10,200 $-775-8%
Framing Leon Framing $33,900 $32,207 +$1,6935%
Foundation Leon Framing $25,000 $29,211 $-4,211-14%
Stucco Luis Zavaleta $9,100 $9,100 +$00%
Insulation Tru Team $3,695 $3,630 +$652%
Finish Marcos Quezada $17,000 $18,450 $-1,450-8%
Electrical MHR Electric $22,600 $17,470 +$5,13029%
Project total $157,160 $150,168 +$6,9925%

⚠ 2 TBD scope(s) not in predicted total: Plumbing/Pick a water heater location (indoor or outdoor) — adds heat; Tile/Pick whether the kitchen has subway tile (yes / no)